Key Takeaways:
- Smoking prevalence in the Netherlands declined only slightly to 18% in 2024 despite steep tax hikes.
- An estimated 60% of cigarettes and rolling tobacco are sourced abroad or through illicit channels.
- Treasury losses from cross-border and illegal trade reach €2.6 billion annually, industry says.
The Netherlands’ sharp increases in tobacco taxes have had limited impact on smoking rates but have led more smokers to purchase cigarettes abroad, costing the government billions in lost revenue.
Statistics Netherlands estimates that 18% of adults will smoke in 2024, a decrease of only two percentage points since 2020. A government study found that about 60% of the tobacco consumed last year was bought in Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, or through illegal trade.
Research commissioned by the Association of Cigarette and Cut Tobacco Manufacturers (VSK) estimates the annual revenue loss at €2.6 billion (US$3.05 billion).
With the latest tax hikes, cigarette prices increased by 24%, and rolling tobacco went up by 45%. A pack now costs over $12.90 (€ 11) in Dutch stores, compared to €6 ($7) in Luxembourg, while 50 grams of rolling tobacco costs about $29.30 (€ 25)—two to three times the price in Germany.
Seizures of illegal goods are increasing, with 15 million cigarettes intercepted in Rotterdam last year and over 20 million seized in Brabant this May, along with 3,700 kilograms of rolling tobacco.
VSK director Jan Hein Sträter stated that higher prices have influenced consumer behavior more than smoking rates. “People were used to fixed prices, and now the norm is to choose cheaper options, whether from abroad or on the black market,” he said, calling for coordinated tax rates and stricter enforcement.
The Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) has called for tougher measures against cross-border imports and new taxes on e-cigarettes, citing concerns about youth adoption.
Tobacco control advocates say the main goal of the 2018 National Prevention Agreement is to reduce smoking among young people, while industry groups emphasize that the biggest impact so far has been lost revenue and increased smuggling.
