By Timothy S. Donahue

Top Takeaways:

• Revenue declines: Malawi’s tobacco farmers have generated $202 million from 99 million kilograms sold this season, down nearly 37% from the same period in 2025.
• Buyer participation declines: Only eight buyers are participating in this year’s marketing season, down from 11 a year ago, which reduced competition.
• Grower concerns: Farmers are questioning official production estimates as prices continue to fall despite shrinking supplies late in the marketing season.

Malawi’s tobacco marketing season has taken a sharp downturn, with lower prices, fewer buyers, and declining export earnings raising concerns in one of the world’s largest tobacco leaf-producing countries.

According to the latest reports from the Malawi Tobacco Commission, growers have sold 99 million kilograms of tobacco during the first 12 weeks of the 2026 marketing season, generating $202 million at an average price of $2.04 per kilogram.

Last year, farmers sold 126 million kilograms over the same period, earning $319 million at an average price of $2.52 per kilogram. The figures reflect a 36.7% decline in export revenue, despite the commission projecting a crop of approximately 197 million kilograms this season.

Grower representatives say the continued decline in prices has been especially frustrating because market supplies are tightening rather than expanding. “Our farmers do not have much tobacco remaining. We are certain production will be well below the initial projection,” Tama Farmers Trust President Abiel Kalima Banda, told media.

“The most worrying thing is that we were made to believe low prices were a result of overproduction. But it now appears we either produced in line with demand or even below it. Farmers therefore feel they have been duped.”

Local observers say the market has also become less competitive. Only eight licensed buyers are purchasing tobacco this season, down from 11 last year, which has reduced competition for leaf at a time when many growers had hoped prices would strengthen.

The commission’s figures also show a widening gap between contract and auction sales. While 97.2% of contract tobacco offered for sale has been purchased, only 41.3% of tobacco offered through the auction system has been sold, leaving most auction bales on the market.

The Tobacco Commission said that discussions with buyers continue as the marketing season progresses.

The disappointing season follows a record year in 2025, when Malawi exported 221 million kilograms of tobacco valued at $542 million, averaging $2.46 per kilogram.

Malawi remains one of the world’s leading exporters of flue-cured tobacco, with leaf accounting for the country’s largest share of merchandise export earnings. Industry observers say this year’s results reflect a combination of weaker international demand, reduced buyer participation, and increased pressure on global leaf markets following large harvests in several producing countries.